There’s a lot going on this week — a LOT — and considering the heightened volatility that’s already in the markets lately, investors best prepare for a gut check … maybe several of them.
Of course, getting things started is all the pregame hype leading up to the Clinton-Trump slugfest, which promises to be viewed by an absolutely insane number of people around the world (see “the stat” below).
Funny? Sure. In a laughing-through-the-tears kind of way.
As Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network, points out: Fear could be a factor for investors tonight. “One thing markets will be watching is whether either of the candidates comes across as, for lack of a better word, scary,” he said in emailed comments.
But even away from the spotlight of the Hofstra stage, there’s plenty of other developments that could have a greater impact on markets, including rumblings out of OPEC, a steady flow of Fed speakers and a full calendar of economic releases.
If these markets are about to explode, we might be in for a taster of that this morning.
Key market gauges
Futures on the Dow YMZ6, -0.47% and the S&P ESZ6, -0.42% are set for some opening losses. Gold GCZ6, -0.01% is down a bit, too. Crude CLZ6, +1.38% is adding a rare splash of green. Asia markets ADOW, -0.65% closed lower after BOJ’s Haruhiko Kuroda said he’s ready to cut rates deeper into negative territory, while Europe SXXP, -1.38% is looking at its worst day in nearly three months as Deutsche Bank is getting crushed.
A disappointing letter from the FDA is crushing shares of Pain Therapeutics PTIE, -4.55% , currently down about 70% ahead of the open.
U.S. shares of Deutsche Bank DB, -1.92% DBK, -5.59% slumped more than 5% after a report said German Chancellor Angela Merkel will not support providing state aid for the country’s largest bank. Both sides have been in denial mood this morning, but it isn’t helping.
Goldman Sachs GS, -1.72% plans to slash about a quarter of its investment-banking workforce in Asia, excluding Japan, later this year, according to Bloomberg. This as the bank struggles with its worst Asia ranking in equity issuance since 2008. Goldman is down about 1% this morning.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is getting together for an informal meeting this week in Algiers. Traders will keep a close eye on any developments as production cuts get discussed. Of course, what happens there could spill over into equity markets. “Over the past 12 months oil prices have exhibited a strong effect and correlation on stock prices,” said Angus Nicholson, market analyst at IG.
NASA will hold a live teleconference at 2 p.m. Eastern today to unveil what agency officials call “surprising activity” on Jupiter’s icy moon Europa. It will be streamed live. Possibility of life?
100 million — That’s how many viewers could tune in for the debate tonight, according to the New York Times. Those are some “Super Bowl” numbers and in the realm of television benchmarks like the finales of “MASH” and “Cheers.”
One of the week’s key reports gets it started early, as new home sales for August hits at 10 a.m. Eastern. A half hour later, we’ll take a look at the Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity. On Tuesday, the S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for July comes out. Then there’s Janet Yellen later this week, along with several other notable releases.
The S&P’s SPX, -0.57% performance has, with a few exceptions, closely tracked the historical averages dating back to 1990. If the market continues to follow the trend, there may be some pain in store before the end-of-year rally takes hold.
“Remember, while history doesn’t necessarily repeat, it often rhymes,” Callum Thomas of Topdown Charts wrote in a post.
Of course, the last few months of the year promise to be a political circus, so maybe all bets are off. “So while it’s just one factor,” Thomas said, “it is something to think about” and perhaps add to “your overall mosaic of market analysis.”
Pretty close, aside from the Brexit blip and the February global growth scare.
“We do have to inhabit other planets. The future of the human race is space exploration.” — Libertarian presidential nominee Gary Johnson, channeling his inner Elon Musk in an interview on ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday.
It’s not just the market that’s poised for more volatility, one of its tech darlings is, too — Facebook FB, -1.63%
Dana Lyons of J. Lyons Fund Management uses this chart to illustrate a “rising wedge” pattern careening toward a resolution. As a technical analyst would tell you, this can have serious bearish implications.
“If this interpretation is correct, the apex is fast approaching,” he said. “The upper and lower bounds of the wedge will intersect before the end of the year… That means we should have resolution of this wedge by that time.”
Let them smoke weed!
The “father of the tweetstorm” quits Twitter.
A look back at the life of Arnold Palmer.
Confirmed: Middle school is difficult.
Just another 33-foot … snake.
This viral photo sums up campaigning in 2016:
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